Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.197816 2.329827 2.469146 2.627733 2.803996 2.994767 3.218037
2025-06-15 2.020995 2.204935 2.408836 2.653818 2.943184 3.278039 3.700863
2025-06-22 1.873063 2.080583 2.317914 2.613366 2.977144 3.418673 4.008880
2025-06-29 1.756817 1.977727 2.236378 2.567311 2.988415 3.519876 4.265629
2025-07-06 1.656507 1.884325 2.156035 2.511380 2.975899 3.581712 4.468421
2025-07-13 1.613103 1.855425 2.150223 2.545114 3.077092 3.797446 4.905833
2025-07-20 1.579058 1.834799 2.151666 2.585780 3.187709 4.033527 5.403186
2025-07-27 1.550769 1.818923 2.156885 2.629871 3.304249 4.287347 5.965421
2025-08-03 1.502296 1.774248 2.121340 2.614923 3.333786 4.412229 6.333067
2025-08-10 1.457146 1.731515 2.085662 2.596609 3.355439 4.524857 6.695107
2025-08-17 1.411592 1.686139 2.043941 2.566627 3.356236 4.602495 7.003859
2025-08-24 1.370862 1.645433 2.006491 2.540157 3.359553 4.683107 7.330552
2025-08-31 1.340601 1.618224 1.987155 2.540074 3.405713 4.844004 7.859392
2025-09-07 1.320508 1.603881 1.984848 2.564705 3.492732 5.085847 8.619521
2025-09-14 1.281630 1.562408 1.942513 2.526474 3.473715 5.133153 8.949712
2025-09-21 1.243502 1.520718 1.898240 2.482921 3.442506 5.153982 9.221443
2025-09-28 1.204664 1.476900 1.849390 2.429991 3.391877 5.132603 9.383583
2025-10-05 1.193639 1.471312 1.855156 2.461921 3.488293 5.407574 10.400329
2025-10-12 1.185098 1.468765 1.864985 2.500390 3.598701 5.725338 11.661449
2025-10-19 1.177811 1.467623 1.876626 2.542075 3.717974 6.079351 13.203033
2025-10-26 1.155687 1.444599 1.854807 2.527945 3.733250 6.208204 14.054728
2025-11-02 1.133793 1.421296 1.831764 2.510630 3.741141 6.321294 14.906184
2025-11-09 1.110023 1.394682 1.802886 2.482275 3.725987 6.379003 15.575044